🪓
Eliminated · Week 488.0
6.7 pts below the next-lowest survivor🛡️
Still alive8 of 12
7 more eliminations to come🎯
Most likely next out24.1%
Sleeper CellSurvival board
Weekly scores. 🪓 = eliminated that week (lowest score among teams still alive); faded = already out. Last survivor after week 11 wins.
| Team | Status | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braised Short Gibbs | Alive | 163.3 | 128.5 | 151.3 | 94.8 |
| CeeDee's Nuts | Alive | 119.9 | 125.1 | 131.0 | 119.9 |
| Two Gurley's One Kupp | Alive | 131.0 | 92.4 | 125.6 | 111.0 |
| The Kansas City Shuffle | Alive | 134.6 | 88.7 | 84.8 | 139.3 |
| Moonlandings and other lies | Alive | 111.2 | 92.8 | 111.6 | 115.1 |
| Sleeper Cell | Alive | 91.4 | 91.3 | 102.6 | 142.9 |
| Just Happy To Be Here | Alive | 86.8 | 120.5 | 87.4 | 132.2 |
| I have a question | Alive | 112.0 | 110.3 | 102.0 | 94.6 |
| Turd Ferguson | 🪓 Wk 4 | 106.3 | 97.0 | 91.6 | 🪓 88.0 |
| World Domination | 🪓 Wk 3 | 108.5 | 98.1 | 🪓 67.1 | 107.9 |
| Joe's Finest Team | 🪓 Wk 2 | 91.7 | 🪓 82.0 | 115.0 | 91.9 |
| First to Worst | 🪓 Wk 1 | 🪓 62.0 | 86.8 | 70.7 | 89.1 |
Who goes next?
Odds detail
| Team | Avg | Proj. mean | SD | Eff % | Out next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleeper Cell | 107.1 | 105.0 | 21.4 | 92.8 | 24.1% |
| Just Happy To Be Here | 106.8 | 109.8 | 20.7 | 82.4 | 17.0% |
| The Kansas City Shuffle | 111.9 | 112.0 | 23.7 | 87.9 | 16.4% |
| I have a question | 104.7 | 105.9 | 15.1 | 85.9 | 15.6% |
| Moonlandings and other lies | 107.7 | 110.3 | 15.6 | 83.3 | 10.5% |
| Two Gurley's One Kupp | 115.0 | 114.3 | 18.1 | 89.6 | 9.4% |
| Braised Short Gibbs | 134.5 | 131.9 | 24.3 | 92.6 | 4.1% |
| CeeDee's Nuts | 124.0 | 120.4 | 14.5 | 95.1 | 2.9% |
Model: each survivor’s weekly score ~ Normal(mean, SD). Mean = 60% season average + 40% (average ideal-lineup score × league-average efficiency), so lineup-setting luck is partly discounted. SD = the team’s weekly SD shrunk toward the league pooled SD. Probability = share of 20,000 simulated weeks where the team posts the lowest score among survivors. With only 4 weeks of data these are rough odds.